If you’re considering buying an EV in the next couple of years, you might want to take the additional step of buying stock in companies that mine lithium.
EVs are expected to grow the global lithium transportation market by 1,000 percent in the next five years.
That’s right, 1,000 percent.
This according to a report released by the Boulder, Colorado-based Environmental Research Organization Pike Research. Pike predicts the Li-ion transportation battery industry will see nearly $8 billion in sales worldwide by 2015, up from $878 million in 2010.
Pike Research Senior Analyst John Gartner says 2012 stands as the “make-or-break year” for the EV market, upon which the rosy forecast for the growth in the lithium market heavily hinges.
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“As government support for the sector winds down, demand from consumers and businesses will need to pick up the slack, or the industry faces the risk of oversupply,” notes Gartner.
Gartner anticipates that prices for Li-ion batteries will be a key determinant in the ultimate market acceptance of EVs, since battery cost will represent much of the price premium for electric vehicles.
He forecasts that Li-ion prices will improve significantly over the next few years, falling 50% from $940 per kilowatt hour (kWh) in 2010 to $470 per kWh in 2015.
Pike Research’s report, “Electric Vehicle Batteries”, examines the key market dynamics for Lithium Ion batteries in plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles. Analysis includes industry and government drivers for the electrification of vehicles, the role of advanced battery technologies in the development of this new sector, and the future outlook for world lithium supplies.
As government support for the sector winds down, demand from consumers and businesses will need to pick up the slack, or the industry faces the risk of oversupply.
–John Gartner, Senior Analyst, Pike Research
The report also examines the potentially thorny issue of total world lithium supplies. However, Pike’s conclusions on this front are not available in the version of the ‘Electric Vehicle Batteries’ report freely available to the public.
An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Pike’s website.
Pike Research provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The company’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends. For more Pikes reports, visit www.pikeresearch.com .
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